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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-01T19:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43719/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the NNE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-01T19:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is currently not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap which began at 2026-01-01T04:38Z. The source of this event is a C6.2 flare from AR 14324 (N24E01) seen in SDO AIA 131 peaking at 2026-01-01T17:59Z. A wide region of dimming and field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, followed by post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 131 and 193. | Arrival Information: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 5.7nT to 9.5nT , B_x: approx. -2.6nT to -1.8nT , B_y: -4.6nT to -6.6nT , B_z: -1.5nT to -6.2nT) along with increases in temperature (approx. 52kK to 182kK), density (approx. 0.23 p/cc to 2.36 p/cc) and speed (approx. 425km/s to 502km/s). This IPS signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-01-01T19:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-04T20:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-05T01:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 35.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2026 Jan 02 1231 UT
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60102
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jan 2026, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jan 2026  10CM FLUX: 166 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2026  10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 044
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2026  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 012

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the
past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C6.5 flare (SIDC Flare 6560) peaking
on January 02 at 00:17 UTC, which was produced by newly emerged SIDC
Sunspot Group 751 (NOAA Active Region 4333). This region produced multiple
C-class flares. There are currently 8 numbered regions on the disk. SIDC
Sunspot Group 744 (NOAA Active Region 4324) produced a long duration C6.2
flare, peaking on January 01 at 17:59 UTC. This region has decayed over the
period and is now Beta-Delta magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 745
(NOAA Active Region 4325, Beta-Gamma configuration) is the largest region
on disk and also produced low level C-class flares. SIDC Sunspot Group 735
(NOAA Active Region 4317) continued to produce some C-class flare from
beyond the limb. A returning active region (SIDC Sunspot Group 722) has
also rotated onto disk (S16E83). A new region emerged in the north-west
quadrant and was numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 752. The remaining regions are
simple and mostly quiet or in decay. Solar flaring activity is expected to
be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a
chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) directed to the
north-east was first seen in LACSCO-C2 data from 18:48 UTC on January 01.
This was associated with the C6.2 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 744 (NOAA
Active Region 4324), with peak time17:59 UTC. This CME is may glancing blow
at Earth from early on January 05.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters showed and
ongoing weak high speed stream influence. The solar wind speed ranged
between 450 and 580 km/s. The total magnetic field ranged between 2 and 9
nT, and Bz had a minimum of -7 nT.  The interplanetary magnetic field phi
angle was in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Disturbed
solar wind conditions are expected from early on January 03, due to the
arrival of a CME from December 31.

Geomagnetism: Over the past 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were at
quiet to unsettled levels globally, with one period of active conditions
(NOAA Kp 1 to 4), and at quiet to unsettled levels locally (K BEL 1 to 3).
Active conditions are expected for January 02, with minor to moderate storm
conditions expected from January 03, due to the possible CME arrival.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10
pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this
threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, was briefly above the 1000 pfu
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again
briefly exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron
fluence was at nominal to moderate levels and is expected to be at nominal
levels for the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 122, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 01 Jan 2026
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 121
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 169
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 022
AK WINGST              : 011
ESTIMATED AP           : 012
ESTIMATED ISN          : 119, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END

Lead Time: 57.90 hour(s)
Difference: -4.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2026-01-02T10:47Z

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